BigBear.ai stock rises in 2025: Defense deals boost growth; financial challenges remain

BigBear.ai’s stock has risen sharply this year because of new defense contracts and AI projects in airport security. The company’s technology is helping the US military and homeland security. But BigBear.ai faces financial problems like falling revenue and losses. Experts have mixed views about its future.

BigBear.ai is a company from Virginia that makes AI tools for the US government. Its AI systems help with defense, border security, and important infrastructure. Some of its main products are the Arcas computer-vision system and the ConductorOS platform. These tools give fast and useful information to decision-makers.

The company’s AI is used in many ways. It helps in battle planning, watching borders, tracking supply chains, and verifying people’s identities. Recently, BigBear.ai started using its biometric system called veriScan at Nashville International Airport. This system lets travelers use facial recognition to skip passport checks, making travel faster. BigBear.ai also won a $165 million contract with the US Army in 2024. It has deals in the Middle East and Panama to use AI for customs and cargo security.

BigBear.ai’s stock price has increased by around 80% in 2025. It reached $7.49 per share on October 9. This rise is due to important new contracts, like helping the US Navy in its UNITAS 2025 maritime exercise. In this project, BigBear.ai’s AI tools improve sensor data and give better information to allied navies.

Despite the stock gains, BigBear.ai is facing money issues. Its revenue fell 18% in the second quarter of 2025 compared to last year, reaching $32.5 million. The company also reported a large loss of $228.6 million, mostly because of one-time charges. BigBear.ai lowered its revenue forecast for the year to between $125 million and $140 million. It also removed its previous profit targets. However, the company still has $390.8 million in cash and $380 million in contracts that will bring future revenue. This gives some financial security despite the losses.

Analysts are not sure about the company’s future. Some, like Cantor Fitzgerald and H.C. Wainwright, think the stock could reach $6 to $8 per share because of growing government AI spending and contract backlog. But most analysts advise holding the stock, with an average price target around $5.80 to $6.00 in the next year.

The stock is very volatile and has been overbought recently, which means investors should be careful. BigBear.ai’s focus is on special, one-time AI solutions, which tend to grow slower and have lower profits than bigger companies like Palantir or C3.ai. Still, its defense and airport projects have made it more visible in the market.

1. Why is BigBear.ai’s stock rising in 2025?BigBear.ai’s stock is rising because it won big defense contracts and launched AI systems for airport security.
2. What financial challenges is BigBear.ai facing?The company has seen a drop in revenue, large losses, and lowered its revenue forecast for 2025.
3. What do analysts say about the future of BigBear.ai?Some analysts see potential for growth, but most recommend holding the stock due to financial risks and volatility.