China's sub-build surge raises concerns for US naval power balance implications

TL;DR

A shift beneath the waves may be underway, as assessments suggest Beijing's accelerating output of submarines begins to offset Washington’s numerical lead at sea. Though the American fleet remains bigger, its edge in underwater operations might shrink, driven by how quickly new Chinese vessels enter service. Quantity alone does not decide dominance, yet consistent construction rhythms can reshape balance over time. What once seemed a stable gap now shows signs of pressure from below.

A fresh assessment by the International Institute for Strategic Studies highlights China's accelerated output of nuclear submarines. While Washington maintains its fleet, Beijing now builds these vessels more quickly. Observations from 2021 through 2025 show a shift that might affect underwater dominance over time. Analysts used satellite views of docks, support structures, and manufacturing zones to track progress. Since official Chinese data on subnumbers remains incomplete, remote imaging fills the information gap. This pace, should it persist, alters long-accepted naval assumptions. Details emerge not from statements but from steady observation above ground.

Ten nuclear submarines entered the water from Chinese shipyards across five years, around seventy-nine thousand tonnes in total mass. In contrast, U.S. efforts produced seven such vessels, amounting to approximately fifty-five thousand five hundred tonnes. It should be observed: launch events alone cannot confirm full readiness of these units. What they can suggest is an ongoing rhythm within industrial facilities building them. During a prior stretch, from 2016 to 2020, the situation looked otherwise. Only three subs rose from Chinese docks then; meanwhile, seven appeared on the American side. This shift now draws attention.

The institute’s Military Balance 2025 report states China has twelve nuclear-powered submarines at present. Among them are six designed for ballistic missiles, along with six used primarily for attacks or missile guidance. In contrast, the U.S. Navy manages sixty-five such vessels, fourteen of which carry ballistic arms, showing a clear edge in quantity. Additionally, China fields forty-six non-nuclear submarines, whereas the American force includes zero conventional models due to full reliance on atomic energy for undersea movement.

A key facility behind China’s growing submarine fleet sits in Huludao; the Bohai Shipbuilding Heavy Industry Co. site now stands out as a focal point. From above, recent images reveal larger building spaces dedicated to ship construction alongside rising signs of underwater craft being put together. Instead of brief surges in output, experts view these physical changes as markers of sustained strategic development. Long-range goals seem reflected in how space and structure have evolved at the location.

Two newly introduced Type 094 ballistic missile submarines were noted in the evaluation. Capable of deploying nuclear-tipped missiles, they form part of China’s strategic balance across land, air, and maritime platforms. Later this decade, production may begin on an advanced Type 096 model, with deployment likely by the late 2020s or early 2030s, according to the document.

Even with fast growth, experts believe China's submarines probably remain behind U.S. and European models when it comes to noise reduction. Because lower sound levels reduce detection risk, silence plays a key role in underwater combat effectiveness. This difference in capability suggests America holds an edge in quality despite Beijing adding more subs.

Still, efforts in U.S. naval construction encounter hurdles. According to a fresh analysis by the Congressional Research Service, domestic yards have delivered roughly 1.1 to 1.2 attack subs each year starting in 2022, below the target of two per annum. That document forecasts submarine totals may dip to 47 by 2030 due to ageing units exiting service, then climb once more should output objectives be achieved.

Later dates now apply to recent initiatives too. Expected delivery of the first Columbia-class submarine, named USS District of Columbia, shifts to 2028, per official reports. Concerns among legislators centre on timelines along with rising expenses. During testimony before Congress, Navy Secretary John Phelan described setbacks across large shipbuilding projects; despite strong performance in one case, completion lagged by half a year while spending rose well beyond estimates.

Although defence experts note that bigger fleets may shape long-term strategy, greater numbers allow longer missions across distant zones. Should today’s pace continue, a research group suggests allied nations might struggle to keep up through naval production alone, affecting both response capability and presence abroad.