Iran-US war escalates with shipping attacks in key Gulf routes as oil prices surge, raising fears of global economic disruption
The ongoing American-Israeli war on Iran, now in its 12th day, is characterized by escalating attacks on commercial shipping and infrastructure, significant casualties, and global economic repercussions, particularly a surge in oil prices. The conflict hinges on a question of endurance, with Iran employing its economy as a weapon against the United States' vulnerabilities. Developments include Iranian attacks on commercial ships and drones targeting Dubai International Airport, while the U.S. and Israel conduct airstrikes within Iran and in Lebanon against Hezbollah. An Israeli intelligence assessment suggests Iran's new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, was wounded early in the war.
The war has resulted in at least 1,230 deaths in Iran, 570 in Lebanon, and 12 in Israel, with approximately 140 U.S. service members wounded and seven killed. U.S. commander Adm. Brad Cooper stated that AI tools helped the military hit over 5,500 targets in Iran, leading to a drastic drop in Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks. He confirmed the use of "advanced AI tools" to analyze data rapidly, enabling faster decision-making, while emphasizing that "humans will always make final decisions on what to shoot and what not to shoot and when to shoot."
Israel's UN envoy, Danny Danon, asserted that Lebanon must confront Hezbollah or Israel will, stating, "We have to choose to actually confront Hezbollah — they have to stop Hezbollah."
"There is no other option."
Danon indicated that Israel's military operation would continue "As long as there will be a threat against us, we will operate." Lebanon's military, supported by the U.S., is deploying in southern Lebanon where Hezbollah has a strong presence, though their ability or willingness to disarm the group remains uncertain.
A naval expert described transiting the Strait of Hormuz without a ceasefire as "suicidal."
"In today’s context, sending warships or civilian vessels into the Strait of Hormuz would be suicidal."
Retired Vice Adm. Pascal Ausseur suggested that a ceasefire would shift the situation from "suicidal to dangerous," allowing for military ship deployment and escort operations. Shrapnel from the conflict impacted a Palestinian family home in the West Bank, causing panic but no injuries. Imad Darwish reported debris tearing through concrete and igniting a small fire. The Israeli-occupied West Bank lacks the siren and shelter systems found in Israel.
President Donald Trump has presented a shifting narrative on the war's progress, moving from calls for "unconditional surrender" to suggesting an end state where Iran replaces one hard-line ayatollah with another. The conflict's precariousness is amplified by these changing statements, impacting the Middle East and causing global economic tremors.
Michael Eisenberg, a Netanyahu advisor, expressed hope that Iranians would seize the opportunity for freedom, calling it "the only option on the table."
"freedom has a price. People pay. Sometimes with their life."
He added, "What Israel and the United States have done together is reduce the cost of freedom for the Iranian people. It’s time to leave this evil death cult regime behind." Eisenberg confirmed that "Plan B is not on the table right now."
Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the war with UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, emphasizing "the need to stop the further escalation of the conflict and settle it through talks."
Monitors report at least 12 incidents involving vessels since the war began, with the International Maritime Organization confirming 12 incidents involving merchant vessels, resulting in at least seven mariner deaths. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center has received 17 reports of incidents in the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman, including 13 attacks and four suspicious activities.
The Iranian women's soccer team may remain in Malaysia longer as Asian football authorities explore travel options, with the Asian Football Confederation covering their accommodation and costs.
Iran's Football Federation head, Mehdi Taj, questioned the country's participation in the World Cup, accusing Trump of interfering and referring to the women's soccer players as "hostages."
"If the outlook for the World Cup is like this, no reasonable person would accept to send their national team to such a place."
An Israeli intelligence official and a reservist confirmed an Israeli intelligence assessment indicating Iran's new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, was injured at the start of the war. His father and wife were reportedly killed in an Israeli airstrike on the first day of the conflict.
The European Union has imposed new sanctions on 19 Iranian officials and entities for "serious human rights violations," with EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas stating, "As the Iran war continues, the EU will protect its interests and pursue those responsible for domestic repression."
Iran has threatened to halt all oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz for the U.S., Israel, or their allies, with any ship or oil cargo belonging to them deemed a legitimate target. Approximately 20% of the world's oil and natural gas normally passes through this strait.
U.S. inflation was already rising before the war, with consumer prices up 2.4% in February. The conflict has caused wild oil price gyrations, with gas prices jumping and expected to further increase inflation when March data is released. This spike will challenge the Federal Reserve and could slow consumer spending, potentially impacting affordability as a political issue for Republicans.
Romania has approved a U.S. request to increase troop presence and utilize its air bases to facilitate military operations in Iran and the Middle East.
Japan plans to release its own oil reserves starting Monday to mitigate the war's impact, as over 90% of its oil imports come from the Middle East, with most passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has arrested 81 individuals for posting information on social media deemed unacceptable during wartime, with security forces commander Ahmad Reza Radan stating, "Since we are at war, we will act like it, those in social media who cause tension for the public mind will be considered the enemy and will be treated as such."
Germany and Austria will release oil reserves to help curb price spikes, following an International Energy Agency request for member states to release 400 million barrels.
New alarms sounded across Israel after detecting missiles launched from Iran.
The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad urged American citizens to leave Iraq due to attacks against U.S. citizens and interests, including risks of kidnapping and attacks on businesses and facilities with U.S. ties. Iraq's airspace is closed, with overland routes to Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey available.
Egypt's Foreign Minister has called for Iran to stop its attacks on Arab countries and warned against "comprehensive chaos" in the Middle East.
Lebanon's death toll from the latest round of Israel-Hezbollah fighting has risen to 570, with 1,444 wounded, including 86 children and 45 women.
Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific Airways will soon raise its fuel surcharges due to a jump in jet fuel prices during the Iran war, with CEO Ronald Lam noting that jet fuel prices roughly doubled in March. The airline has halted flight services to Dubai and Riyadh for the month.
A Thai cargo ship was struck and set ablaze in the Strait of Hormuz, with three crew members missing. The Omani navy rescued 20 crew members, while a search is underway for the three reportedly in the engine room during the explosion.
Israel is bolstering its forces on the northern border, repositioning troops from the south to reinforce the area due to resumed drone and rocket attacks from Hezbollah. Residents in northern Israel are experiencing frequent sirens and explosions, with no current plans for evacuation.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for an end to the war, stating it must be stopped before it "sets the entire region on fire" and that "If diplomacy is given a chance, it is indeed possible to achieve (peace)."
Iran hosted a public funeral for commanders killed on the first day of the war, including Lt. Gen. Abdolrahim Mousavi and Lt. Gen. Mohammad Pakpour, amidst Israeli airstrikes on the capital.
The Israeli military is conducting simultaneous strikes across Iran and against Hezbollah infrastructure in Beirut.
Pope Leo XIV is praying for peace in Iran, Lebanon, and the Middle East, recalling the funeral of a Maronite priest killed in southern Lebanon, Rev. Pierre El Raii, who was trying to rescue a wounded parishioner. The Vatican is particularly concerned about the war's impact on Lebanon, a country with a significant Christian population.
Oman reported shooting down an Iranian drone and another crashing into the sea near its port at Duqm, with no human or material losses. Duqm has served as a key resupply point for the USS Abraham Lincoln.