Moderna 2025 sales forecast: $1.9 billion, reduced expenses, increased cash
TOI GLOBAL DESK | TOI GLOBAL | Jan 12, 2026, 21:30 IST
Moderna
Moderna projects $1.9 billion in sales for 2025, a decrease from their pandemic high. In a strategic move, the company aims for a healthier cash reserve while slashing operating costs. Anticipation is building around new flu and combination vaccines, which are expected to drive revenue growth by 2027.
<p>The new capabilities will allow the company to control the entire production process domestically.</p>
Moderna anticipates reporting approximately $1.9 billion in sales for 2025, positioning the company near the higher end of its previously stated forecast of $1.6 billion to $2 billion. This projection, however, falls significantly short of the revenue levels achieved during the COVID-19 pandemic. The company also announced a reduction in its 2025 operating expense forecast by $200 million, bringing the new range to $5.0 billion to $5.2 billion.
Moderna expects to conclude the year with $8.1 billion in cash, an increase from its earlier projection of $6.5 billion to $7.0 billion. This cash position includes $600 million from a $1.5 billion loan secured in November from Ares Management.
Chief Financial Officer James Mock stated that U.S. vaccination rates in the retail sector saw a year-over-year decline of roughly 26% in 2025. He noted that this decrease, which was at the lower end of the company's projected 20% to 40% drop, ultimately contributed to higher sales.
The vaccine maker, scheduled to present at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, has faced financial challenges as demand for COVID vaccines has decreased following its pandemic success, when Moderna reported $18.4 billion in revenue in 2022. Despite the drop in sales, the company is now observing signs of stabilization.
Moderna reiterated its 2026 goal of achieving up to 10% revenue growth. The company anticipates regulatory approvals this year for both a standalone influenza vaccine and its COVID-flu combination shot. These launches are intended to help offset the decline in COVID vaccine revenue.
"If we're at $1.9 billion for 2025, up to 10% would be $2.1 billion, although we're not guiding that officially right now," said Mock.
The company does not expect its flu or combination shots to be approved in time for the 2026 respiratory-disease season, but anticipates they will provide a boost in 2027.
Moderna also expects significant trial data in 2026 for its experimental vaccines in oncology, rare disease, and infectious disease. This includes late-stage results for its norovirus shot and mid-stage data for the cancer vaccine co-developed with Merck, which is being tested in melanoma patients following surgery.
The company is slated to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results on February 13.
Moderna expects to conclude the year with $8.1 billion in cash, an increase from its earlier projection of $6.5 billion to $7.0 billion. This cash position includes $600 million from a $1.5 billion loan secured in November from Ares Management.
Chief Financial Officer James Mock stated that U.S. vaccination rates in the retail sector saw a year-over-year decline of roughly 26% in 2025. He noted that this decrease, which was at the lower end of the company's projected 20% to 40% drop, ultimately contributed to higher sales.
The vaccine maker, scheduled to present at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, has faced financial challenges as demand for COVID vaccines has decreased following its pandemic success, when Moderna reported $18.4 billion in revenue in 2022. Despite the drop in sales, the company is now observing signs of stabilization.
Moderna reiterated its 2026 goal of achieving up to 10% revenue growth. The company anticipates regulatory approvals this year for both a standalone influenza vaccine and its COVID-flu combination shot. These launches are intended to help offset the decline in COVID vaccine revenue.
"If we're at $1.9 billion for 2025, up to 10% would be $2.1 billion, although we're not guiding that officially right now," said Mock.
The company does not expect its flu or combination shots to be approved in time for the 2026 respiratory-disease season, but anticipates they will provide a boost in 2027.
Moderna also expects significant trial data in 2026 for its experimental vaccines in oncology, rare disease, and infectious disease. This includes late-stage results for its norovirus shot and mid-stage data for the cancer vaccine co-developed with Merck, which is being tested in melanoma patients following surgery.
The company is slated to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results on February 13.