Persian Gulf water crisis deepens as desalination plants face growing threat from missile strikes, raising fears of severe regional shortages

Missiles and drones are threatening energy production in the Persian Gulf, but analysts warn that water, not oil, may be the resource most at risk in the arid region. Bahrain accused Iran of damaging a desalination plant, while Iran stated a U.S. airstrike hit one of its own plants. Hundreds of desalination plants along the Persian Gulf coast are vulnerable to strikes, which could leave major cities without water.

Kuwait relies on desalination for about 90% of its drinking water, Oman for roughly 86%, and Saudi Arabia for about 70%. These plants remove salt from seawater, primarily through reverse osmosis, to provide freshwater for cities, industries, and agriculture in one of the world's driest regions. While the international community has focused on the impact of the conflict on energy prices, given the Gulf's role in global crude exports, the infrastructure supplying drinking water is equally vulnerable.

Michael Christopher Low, director of the Middle East Center at the University of Utah, described the region as "saltwater kingdoms" and "human-made fossil-fueled water superpowers." He noted this is both a monumental achievement and a significant vulnerability.

The conflict, which began with U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, has brought fighting close to critical desalination infrastructure. On March 2, Iranian strikes near Dubai's Jebel Ali port landed about 12 miles from a major desalination plant supplying much of the city's water. Satellite data initially suggested a possible fire near the Fujairah F1 power and water complex in the UAE after nearby strikes, but the plant's operator confirmed it was not damaged and remained operational.

Damage was reported at Kuwait's Doha West desalination plant, likely from nearby port attacks or debris from intercepted drones. Bahrain accused Iran of indiscriminately attacking civilian targets and damaging one of its desalination plants, though water supplies were not reported to be offline. Iran, in turn, stated a U.S. airstrike damaged an Iranian desalination plant on Qeshm Island, cutting off water to 30 villages. Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, warned that "the U.S. set this precedent, not Iran."

Many Gulf desalination plants are integrated with power stations, meaning attacks on electrical infrastructure could also disrupt water production. Even with backup power, disruptions can cascade through interconnected systems. David Michel, senior fellow for water security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, called this an "asymmetrical tactic" allowing Iran to impose costs on Gulf countries.

Ed Cullinane, Middle East editor at Global Water Intelligence, explained that desalination plants have multiple stages, and damage to any part can interrupt production. He stated, "None of these assets are any more protected than any of the municipal areas that are currently being hit by ballistic missiles or drones."

Gulf governments and U.S. officials have long recognized the risks to regional stability posed by these systems. A 2010 CIA analysis warned that attacks on desalination facilities could trigger national crises, with prolonged outages lasting months if critical equipment were destroyed. More than 90% of the Gulf's desalinated water comes from just 56 plants, which are "extremely vulnerable to sabotage or military action." A leaked 2008 U.S. diplomatic cable indicated that Riyadh would need to evacuate within a week if the Jubail desalination plant or its associated infrastructure were seriously damaged.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have invested in pipeline networks and storage to cushion short-term disruptions, but smaller states like Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait have fewer backup supplies.

Climate change also poses a threat to water plants. Warming oceans increase the likelihood of cyclones and extreme rainfall, which could damage coastal desalination facilities. The plants themselves contribute to climate change through energy-intensive operations, producing significant carbon emissions annually. The byproduct, brine, can harm marine habitats, and intake systems can trap and kill marine organisms.

As climate change intensifies droughts and disrupts rainfall, desalination is expected to expand globally. The threat is not hypothetical; during Iraq's 1990-1991 invasion of Kuwait, Iraqi forces sabotaged power stations and desalination facilities. Simultaneously, oil spills threatened desalination plant intake pipes, leaving Kuwait without fresh water for years. More recently, Yemen's Houthi rebels have targeted Saudi desalination facilities.

These incidents highlight an erosion of norms against attacking civilian infrastructure, as seen in conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, and Iraq. International humanitarian law prohibits targeting civilian infrastructure indispensable for survival, including drinking water facilities. Cyberattacks on water infrastructure are also a growing concern, with U.S. officials blaming Iran-aligned groups for hacking American water utilities.

Iran itself faces a severe water crisis. After five years of extreme drought, water levels in Tehran's reservoirs have plunged, prompting warnings of potential evacuation. Unlike many Gulf states, Iran relies more on rivers, reservoirs, and aquifers. The country operates a limited number of desalination plants, and expansion is hampered by infrastructure, energy costs, and sanctions.

"They were already thinking of evacuating the capital last summer," Cullinane of Global Water Intelligence said. "I don’t dare to wonder what it’s going to be like this summer under sustained fire, with an ongoing economic catastrophe and a serious water crisis."