Trump’s Iran war reshapes midterm elections as rising gas prices fuel voter concerns and deepen Republican struggles amid ongoing economic and political uncertainty
TOI GLOBAL DESK | TOI GLOBAL | Apr 03, 2026, 20:10 IST
Trump’s Iran war leaves Republicans adrift ahead of midterms
Amidst a turbulent political landscape, President Trump navigates the complexities of escalating tensions in Iran, which have spiked energy prices and intensified U.S. military commitment abroad. As midterm elections loom, Republicans are on edge, with some acknowledging the potential loss of the House. Public sentiment leans heavily towards skepticism regarding the war's trajectory and its repercussions on everyday life.
President Donald Trump is facing a challenging political landscape ahead of the midterm elections due to the ongoing conflict in Iran, which has led to surging energy costs and an escalating overseas engagement that is unpopular with many in his own party. Trump's recent remarks offered little clarity on the war, which began over a month ago with a joint U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran, simultaneously suggesting its conclusion and expansion. This situation comes as Republicans, who currently control all branches of government, are bracing for potential political backlash in elections that will determine control of Congress and key governorships.
A year and a half after promising to lower costs and end wars, Trump is now a wartime president. This shift has dramatically altered the political landscape for Republicans, who had previously believed they could maintain their House majority and easily hold the Senate. Now, many privately concede the House is likely lost, and Democrats have a realistic chance of taking the Senate. Republicans are also struggling to present a unified message regarding the conflict in Iran.
The Republican National Committee has largely omitted the war from talking points issued to surrogates. Leaders of the party's campaign committees for the House and Senate declined interview requests. Many vulnerable Republican candidates are avoiding the issue, unwilling to publicly defend or challenge President Trump.
Despite this, President Trump remains deeply popular with Republican voters. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina expressed support for Trump's address, stating, "That was the best speech I could’ve hoped for." Graham added that Trump "gave the American people a clear and coherent pathway forward."
President Trump made minimal effort to gain public support for the conflict before the initial attack. Five weeks later, at least 13 U.S. service members have been killed, and hundreds more have been injured. Thousands of additional troops have been deployed to the region, and the Pentagon has requested $200 billion in new funding. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for a fifth of the world's oil, remains closed.
The average price for a gallon of gasoline in the U.S. was $4.08 on Thursday, according to AAA. This is almost a full dollar higher than on President Joe Biden’s last day in office. On Wednesday, Trump insisted that gas prices would fall quickly once the war concluded. He offered no solution for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, he invited skeptical U.S. allies to address it themselves.
He insisted the war would be worthwhile.
“This is a true investment in your grandchildren and your grandchildren’s future,” Trump said. “When it’s all over, the United States will be safer, stronger, more prosperous and greater than it has ever been before.”
Former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Georgia Republican, criticized Trump's Iran policy.
“I wanted so much for President Trump to put America First. That’s what I believed he would do. All I heard from his speech tonight was WAR WAR WAR,” she wrote on social media. “Nothing to lower the cost of living for Americans.”
Approximately 6 in 10 U.S. adults believe the U.S. military action in Iran has "gone too far." Roughly a third approve of how President Trump is handling the situation in Iran. The possibility of sending U.S. forces into Iran appears politically unpalatable to many. About 6 in 10 adults are "strongly" or "somewhat" opposed to deploying U.S. troops on the ground to fight Iran. This opposition includes about half of Republicans. Only about 1 in 10 favor deploying troops.
President Trump's overall approval ratings have remained consistently weak. About 4 in 10 Americans approve of his handling of the presidency, which is in line with his approval throughout his second term.
Republican strategist Ari Fleischer acknowledged that Trump has not received the polling boost following this war that former President George W. Bush experienced after invading Iraq. Bush had worked to build public backing for the Iraq War before its commencement. Immediately after the 2003 invasion, Bush's popularity surged, as did the stock market. Public sentiment and the economy only soured after the conflict prolonged. The Iraq War ultimately spanned more than eight years, fostering a generation of anti-war Republicans and contributing to Trump's "America First" foreign policy.
Fleischer expressed hope that the Trump experience would be the opposite of the Bush experience. He stated that Trump must win the war decisively and quickly to avoid further backlash. He suggested there could be a "very significant political upside if things end well, oil comes down and markets rally." Fleischer added that Trump's actions will be more significant than his words.
“Ultimately, he is not going to get judged on his persuasion or his explanations or his assertions, he’s going to get judged on results,” he said.
President Trump stated during his April 1, 2026, address from the White House, "Thanks to the progress we’ve made, I can say tonight that we are on track to complete all of America’s military objectives shortly, very shortly." He also said, “We’re going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks.”
These comments were made roughly six months before voters cast ballots in elections that will decide control of Congress and key governorships. Republicans, who control all branches of government, are preparing for a difficult political outcome. Veteran Republican pollster Neil Newhouse warned, “You’re looking at an ugly November.” He added, “At a point in time when we need every break possible to hold the House and Senate, our edge is being chipped away.”
Associated Press writer Linley Sanders in Washington contributed to this report.
A year and a half after promising to lower costs and end wars, Trump is now a wartime president. This shift has dramatically altered the political landscape for Republicans, who had previously believed they could maintain their House majority and easily hold the Senate. Now, many privately concede the House is likely lost, and Democrats have a realistic chance of taking the Senate. Republicans are also struggling to present a unified message regarding the conflict in Iran.
The Republican National Committee has largely omitted the war from talking points issued to surrogates. Leaders of the party's campaign committees for the House and Senate declined interview requests. Many vulnerable Republican candidates are avoiding the issue, unwilling to publicly defend or challenge President Trump.
Despite this, President Trump remains deeply popular with Republican voters. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina expressed support for Trump's address, stating, "That was the best speech I could’ve hoped for." Graham added that Trump "gave the American people a clear and coherent pathway forward."
President Trump made minimal effort to gain public support for the conflict before the initial attack. Five weeks later, at least 13 U.S. service members have been killed, and hundreds more have been injured. Thousands of additional troops have been deployed to the region, and the Pentagon has requested $200 billion in new funding. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for a fifth of the world's oil, remains closed.
The average price for a gallon of gasoline in the U.S. was $4.08 on Thursday, according to AAA. This is almost a full dollar higher than on President Joe Biden’s last day in office. On Wednesday, Trump insisted that gas prices would fall quickly once the war concluded. He offered no solution for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, he invited skeptical U.S. allies to address it themselves.
He insisted the war would be worthwhile.
“This is a true investment in your grandchildren and your grandchildren’s future,” Trump said. “When it’s all over, the United States will be safer, stronger, more prosperous and greater than it has ever been before.”
Former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Georgia Republican, criticized Trump's Iran policy.
“I wanted so much for President Trump to put America First. That’s what I believed he would do. All I heard from his speech tonight was WAR WAR WAR,” she wrote on social media. “Nothing to lower the cost of living for Americans.”
Approximately 6 in 10 U.S. adults believe the U.S. military action in Iran has "gone too far." Roughly a third approve of how President Trump is handling the situation in Iran. The possibility of sending U.S. forces into Iran appears politically unpalatable to many. About 6 in 10 adults are "strongly" or "somewhat" opposed to deploying U.S. troops on the ground to fight Iran. This opposition includes about half of Republicans. Only about 1 in 10 favor deploying troops.
President Trump's overall approval ratings have remained consistently weak. About 4 in 10 Americans approve of his handling of the presidency, which is in line with his approval throughout his second term.
Republican strategist Ari Fleischer acknowledged that Trump has not received the polling boost following this war that former President George W. Bush experienced after invading Iraq. Bush had worked to build public backing for the Iraq War before its commencement. Immediately after the 2003 invasion, Bush's popularity surged, as did the stock market. Public sentiment and the economy only soured after the conflict prolonged. The Iraq War ultimately spanned more than eight years, fostering a generation of anti-war Republicans and contributing to Trump's "America First" foreign policy.
Fleischer expressed hope that the Trump experience would be the opposite of the Bush experience. He stated that Trump must win the war decisively and quickly to avoid further backlash. He suggested there could be a "very significant political upside if things end well, oil comes down and markets rally." Fleischer added that Trump's actions will be more significant than his words.
“Ultimately, he is not going to get judged on his persuasion or his explanations or his assertions, he’s going to get judged on results,” he said.
President Trump stated during his April 1, 2026, address from the White House, "Thanks to the progress we’ve made, I can say tonight that we are on track to complete all of America’s military objectives shortly, very shortly." He also said, “We’re going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks.”
These comments were made roughly six months before voters cast ballots in elections that will decide control of Congress and key governorships. Republicans, who control all branches of government, are preparing for a difficult political outcome. Veteran Republican pollster Neil Newhouse warned, “You’re looking at an ugly November.” He added, “At a point in time when we need every break possible to hold the House and Senate, our edge is being chipped away.”
Associated Press writer Linley Sanders in Washington contributed to this report.