U.S. net migration turns negative for first time in 50 years, Brookings warns
The United States may have experienced negative net migration in 2025 for the first time in at least half a century, according to a new Brookings Institution report, marking a historic shift in population trends. The study estimates net migration ranged between –10,000 and –295,000 last year, a dramatic reversal from the more than one million people who typically entered the country annually in recent decades. Brookings warns the trend could continue into 2026, potentially slowing employment growth, consumer spending, and overall economic expansion. The decline is largely attributed to tougher immigration enforcement under President Donald Trump’s second administration, including the suspension of refugee admissions, the elimination of humanitarian parole programs, and an aggressive increase in deportations and border controls.
According to a new study conducted by the Brookings Institution, it appears that for the very first time in at least five decades (and some reports say over five decades), the United States has likely come close to experiencing negative net migration in 2025, meaning that there were more people leaving the country than entering it.
According to the study that was published on January 13, 2026, Brookings estimates that net migration for the United States in 2025 was between -10,000 and -295,000. This would indicate a dramatic shift from previous years, when each year's net migration into the U.S. often exceeded one million people. Brookings has cautioned against the continued downward trend of net migration continuing through 2026 if enforcement efforts continue to intensify under President Donald Trump's second administration.
As outlined in the report from Brookings, negative net migration had not been seen in the U.S. for at least 50 years, and this represents an "historically unprecedented transition" that could have significant economic implications.
Brookings projects, in all likelihood, that for the next year (2026), net migration will remain in the red. The think tank noted that as a result of this decline, employment growth, GDP, and consumer spending may be hindered and warned that the reduced transparency of migration data will affect accurately estimating net migration numbers.
The steep decline in net migration is primarily attributed to the comprehensive changes in the way U.S. immigration policy is enforced and administered since Donald Trump assumed the presidency a second time around. The sweeping changes include the suspension of all refugee admissions as well as the elimination of all humanitarian parole programs, which were utilized to assist individuals who had been the victims of a natural disaster or had encountered other circumstances that would permit them entry into the United States. In addition, there has been a significant increase in immigration enforcement measures being undertaken, particularly in cities that are controlled by the Democratic Party.