Gold stays steady
Gold reached a record price of $4,398 per ounce in mid-October, but the market has been quiet since then. Many traders expected a correction after such a strong year, but gold did not fall. Instead, it moved sideways for several weeks. This has become one of the main points of interest in the market. The metal is still up 51% for the year. Silver has done even better, rising almost 88%. Even with such large gains, gold has not shown signs of a sharp reversal. For many analysts, this is a sign that the market is still strong.
Factors behind steadiness
One major factor behind the pause is the US dollar. The dollar has risen nearly 5% from earlier lows. A stronger dollar usually pushes gold prices down because it makes the metal costlier for buyers outside the US. However, this time the price did not drop much. Geopolitical tensions also cooled slightly. Talks between the US and China showed some progress, and diplomatic efforts continued around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. When global risks appear lower, investors tend to move money from safe assets like gold to stocks. Even so, gold stayed firm. Market expectations for Federal Reserve action also played a role. Traders recently increased their expectations for a December rate cut from 67% to about 88%. But the constant shifts in outlook created uncertainty. Higher real yields on Treasury bonds also made gold less attractive in the short term because gold does not pay interest.
Seasonal patterns
A seasonal shift is also shaping the market. India’s Diwali season, one of the world’s biggest periods for gold buying, ended in November. Demand usually slows afterward, and this year followed that pattern. However, gold has now entered a strong seasonal window that often lasts from late November to mid-January. Over the past 15 years, December has often been a quiet month before a rally. Years like 1980, 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2025 show similar price behavior. Many traders believe this year may follow the same script. The 50-day simple moving average has supported the price for most of the year, which suggests the broader trend is still positive.
New trading tools
New trading tools are also shaping gold’s future. In the past, most retail investors relied on large 100-ounce futures contracts or ETFs. The 10-ounce micro contract helped, but many still found futures hard to use. In 2025, a new 1-ounce cash-settled futures contract was launched. This has made gold trading easier and more precise for smaller investors.
